According to 2014 exit poll data, over half of young 2014 voters felt that any of the Republican candidates in the poll would not make a good president. Should that early indicator translate into vote choice in 2016 it would be a departure from long-term trends; historically, Republican presidential candidates have been competitive with Democrats among young voters. When asked whether voters would be more likely to choose Secretary Clinton or a Republican candidate in 2016. Among youth under 30, 32% said Sec. Clinton, 31% said a Republican candidate, and 35% said “it depends.” On that question, however, 18 to 24-years-old were more likely to say that they would vote for the Republican candidate (36%), compared to 29% for Sec. Clinton, and 34% “it depends”.
However, it’s unclear how strong an indicator exit polling from previous elections can be; the 2006 and 2010 polls did not ask about future presidential candidates, so direct comparisons are not possible. The above answers might indicate young people’s familiarity with those names, which can be either an advantage or a drawback. Primary voters will also differ from congressional-election voters in some respects; the electorate will be much larger and there will be new young voters in 2016, as well.
Read the full blog post from CIRCLE (The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement) here.